Exits Extend, ISM Expands, and Imports Inflect; Setting Up For a Demand-Led 2H

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Exits Extend, ISM Expands, and Imports Inflect; Setting Up For a Demand-Led 2H

USA | Transport & Logistics EquityJuneResearch25, 2026

Figure 1 - Transport Bankruptcies at a GlanceExits Extend, ISM Expands, and Imports Inflect;

+30%

572 544(5%)

+51%Setting Up For a Demand-Led 2H

451 439 414 396

365 365

Trucking supply continues to tighten as bankruptcies re-accelerate, with May 295 283 290 234 +18%275

+36%57exits up 36% YoY and regulatory enforcement and the Montgomery ruling set to 42

drive further capacity attrition. This is fueling a sharp rate rally, with June spot

rates ex. fuel accelerating to +45% YoY, with contract rates now up DD%. At the .Source: BankruptcyData.com, Jefferies Research, Jefferies

same time, ISM and import data point to firming demand, supporting a broader

Figure 2 - Outbound Tender Rejection Index

inflection in the 2H and a more durable upcycle into 2027 and beyond.

Continued Supply Attrition Reinforces Structural Tightness: Trucking capacity continues to exit

the market at an elevated and re-accelerating pace, tightening the supply backdrop just as the cycle

inflects. May bankruptcies rose 36% YoY to 57 exits, marking one of the highest monthly levels in .

Source: FreightWaves SONAR, Jefferies

our 11+ year dataset, while YTD exits are up 18% YoY and 14% on a two-year stack. Importantly,

this is not a one-off spike but a renewed acceleration following a period of moderation through Figure 3 - DAT Van Load-to-Truck Ratio Firms

2025, underscoring that the multi-year attrition cycle remains firmly intact. We see incremental 12

capacity attrition from an increasingly restrictive regulatory environment, including enforcement 10

around English language proficiency, limits on non-domiciled CDLs, tighter scrutiny of driver training 86