Perusahaan Gas Negara: Highest USD dividend stock in APAC utilities; upgrade to OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Perusahaan Gas Negara: Highest USD dividend stock in APAC utilities; upgrade to OW

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

26 June 2026

Perusahaan Gas Negara ▲Overweight

Previous: Neutral

Highest USD dividend stock in APAC utilities; upgrade PGAS.JK, PGAS IJ

Price (25 Jun 26):Rp1,520

to OW ▲Price Target (Dec-27):Rp2,150

Prior (Dec-26):Rp2,090

We upgrade PGAS to OW (from N) with a new Dec-27 PT of Rp2,150, implying Indonesia Utilities

AC42% upside. We believe the market has reset expectations after the disappointing Arnanto Januri

2025 dividend, driven by an asset impairment (see our downgrade report), as (622-1) 5291 8047

suggested by the 31% share price decline over the past three months (vs. JCI -20%). arnanto.januri@jpmorgan.com

Looking ahead, we expect earnings tailwinds into 2027 as oil prices trend lower; PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

our global team now forecasts a surplus balance by 4Q26 and oil falling to below Benny Kurniawan, CFA

$60/bbl by 2H27 (report). PGAS should benefit, given an increasing LNG supply (62-21) 5291 8024

benny.kurniawan@jpmorgan.com

contribution and the price-cost lag working in its favor. Every $5/bbl steepening PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

decline in oil prices leads to ~3% EPS accretion, all else equal. At a normalized

Alan Hon

80% payout, PGAS offers a 13% USD dividend yield, which we view as attractive (852) 2800-8573

for investors seeking yield without direct commodity exposure; this is the highest alan.hon@jpmorgan.com

yield in the broader APAC utilities universe and the widest spread vs. Indonesia’s J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

10yr USD government bond yield. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

• Earnings tailwinds as oil prices trend lower. With the recent developments Key Changes (FYE Dec)