Haleon PLC (HLN.L): Model Update

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Haleon PLC (HLN.L): Model Update

Haleon PLC (HLN.L)

25 June 2026 Citi Research

Haleon PLC

Valuation

We value Haleon using a peer multiple SoP approach and set our target price at 455p. We believe this is one of the best ways to

capture various value drivers in each of Haleon’s business categories, and the seasonality of the categories makes it difficult, in

our view, to perform a DCF. We include the three core profit centers within our analysis – Oral Care, VMS, and OTC – and apply

our estimates of the split of profitability to capture the different contributions from each profit center. We apply EV/EBITDA 25E

multiples to each profit center by adjusting the multiples of close peers/latest transactions to reflect the differences in Haleon’s

portfolios vs peers and/or the inclusion of synergies impact, if any, in transaction multiples. Our target price implies a 2026E PE

of c.22x, a low-double-digit premium to its peer group average, which we see as fair given Haleon’s mid-to-long term earnings

algo, pace of deleveraging, and category exposure.

Risks

Haleon screens as High Risk in our quantitative model, but this is driven by its short trading history since listing. We do not

believe a High Risk rating is supported by the structural defensiveness of the Consumer Health category, its visibility, secular

growth drivers, barriers to entry and high FCF generation, and so a High Risk rating has not been applied.

Downside risks to our recommendation and our target price being achieved include: 1) revenue and margin risk from VMS

commoditization; 2) regulatory or litigation risk; 3) structural changes to consumer behaviours caused by Covid impacting pace

of deleveraging; 4) market share shifts to private labels during a recession; and 5) inflation and currency risks.