Global Trucks: North America strength backed by fundamentals not prebuy... meaning a very good 2027?

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Global Trucks: North America strength backed by fundamentals not prebuy... meaning a very good 2027?

25 June 2026

Price Target Change

European Automobiles & Components

Global Trucks: North America strength backed by fundamentals

not prebuy... meaning a very good 2027?

Since we published our February North America truck update, the longevity of strong truck Harry Martin, CFA

+44 20 7676 8965 orders has extended beyond our previous expectations and looks very much driven by

harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com fundamental strength not prebuy. We revise our North America outlook upwards, primarily for

2027 which also increases our target prices. Among the EU names we see stocks pricing this

Chad Dillard strength in, leaving our underlying stock views little changed. PCAR Outperform remains the

+1 917 344 8469

chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com name to own, DTG Underperform on elevated expectations & valuation.

Miguel Marques, CFA Order strength this year driven by fundamentals not prebuy. We have been behind

+1 917 344 8432 the curve of the upcycle in US truck orders this year, with our initial expectations of prebuy/

miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com pullforward of demand refuted by continuing strong order data through April & May. The

last six months of demand for new trucks can be fully explained by: 1) pent-up replacement

Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA demand, 2) improving industrial sentiment and 3) improving freight spot rates & fleet +44 20 7676 7254

steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com profitability. Despite improvements in orders, we don’t increase our market forecast for

2026 from 275k units as H1 build rates are low, meaning a significant production ramp

Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi needed to hit >265k for the year. If anything downside risk exists from supplier or labour