Monthly Data Tracker: Softer App Store, PC and Consulting Demand vs. Stronger Cloud Capex

研报英文原文证据摘录

Monthly Data Tracker: Softer App Store, PC and Consulting Demand vs. Stronger Cloud Capex

olume) model introductions

in C2H. Based on the historical builds-to-shipments relationship, 54M builds would

imply 58-58.5M September quarter shipments – 3M below our 61.5M forecast and

1.5M below consensus at 59.7M. That said, we would not over-extrapolate near-term

softness. With Apple transitioning from 3nm (a key constraint in C1H) to 2nm for

iPhone 18 processors, and supply-chain checks suggesting potential CY26 shipments

of 265-270M units (up 5-7% Y/Y), there is still a path to stronger C2H outcomes. For

now, we keep our 252M (flat Y/Y) CY26 shipment forecast unchanged, but will

continue to monitor builds, Apple’s pricing strategy, and the potential demand

elasticity following the September launch. As a reminder, we have embedded $100

like-for-like starting price increases for the iPhone 18 family, assuming Apple will

protect gross profit dollars, not gross margins.

Seeing further signs of erosion in the PC market. Based on the latest projections

from our Greater China Tech Hardware team, C2Q26 notebook ODM builds are now

expected to be 29.3M, or 12% Y/Y unit declines, ~3% (or ~1.1M units) below prior

expectations and 12 points below normal June-quarter seasonality. We estimate this

translates into 45.3M notebook shipments in the June quarter, effectively in line with

our current 44.9M unit forecast, and down 10% Y/Y, as Windows 11 refresh and pull-

in abate following a strong last 6-12 months of demand. For C3Q26, the team

introduced notebook builds of 29M (-15% Y/Y, -1% Q/Q), ~6 points below normal

September-quarter seasonality (off of a sub-seasonal June quarter) – translating into

~45M notebook shipments in the September quarter, down 16% Y/Y ( Exhibit 54 ).