Constellation Brands: F1Q27 Preview: Lowering F1Q Estimates as Beer Industry Draws a Yellow Card; Near-Term Set-Up Seems More Supportive

研报英文原文证据摘录

Constellation Brands: F1Q27 Preview: Lowering F1Q Estimates as Beer Industry Draws a Yellow Card; Near-Term Set-Up Seems More Supportive

Drew Levine, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-0374 25 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

drew.levine@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Longer term, STZ should still be a relative winner within the

beer category given its exposure to faster growing consumer

cohorts and premium positioning, and the company has

attractive margins and cash return potential ahead as capital

requirements moderate. That said, we see these positives as

balanced by near-term pressure on lower-income and Hispanic

consumers and overhangs from lower consumption of alcohol

by younger consumers and potential impacts from GLP-1 drugs.

We believe the uncertainty on the outlook for the Beer business

YTD 1m 3m 12m from both a top-line and margin perspective is balanced by the

Abs 3.9% -4.1% -6.0% -12.2% significant de-rating in STZ shares over the past couple years as

Rel -16.0% -7.8% -25.3% -51.7%

beer industry trends weakened and company performance began

Company Data converging closer to market.

Shares O/S (mn) 195

Valuation52-week range ($) 178.13-126.45

Market cap ($ mn) 27,861.01 We rate Constellation Brands (STZ) Neutral. Our December

Exchange rate 1.00 2026 price target of $169 is based on 13.7x P/E, which is the

Free float (%) 87.2%

3M ADV (mn) 2.11 average of beer peers ABI and TAP, off our CY27 EPS estimate

3M ADV ($ mn) 315.0 of $12.33.

Volatility (90 Day) 31

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 14|8|2 Performance Drivers

Key Metrics (FYE Feb)

$ in millions FY26A FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 9,139 9,123 9,383

Adj. EBITDA 3,362 3,446 3,590

Adj. EBIT 2,943 2,984 3,117

Adj.