Cosmetics Sector: Earnings Outlook (Apr-Jun): Need strategies to grow core brands, lift margins

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Cosmetics Sector: Earnings Outlook (Apr-Jun): Need strategies to grow core brands, lift margins

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

25 June 2026

Cosmetics Sector: Earnings

Outlook (Apr-Jun)

Need strategies to grow core brands, lift margins

Based on April–May data, we think domestic cosmetics shipments likely improved Japan Equity Research

versus the January–March quarter. However, with imports rising, competition in

Cosmetics and Personal Care /

the domestic cosmetics market remains intense. China's April–May data also point Paper and Packaging

to a slowing recovery in the cosmetics sales environment. Against this backdrop, AC Akiko Kuwahara

we think that even if April–June results at the cosmetics companies we cover track

(81-3) 6736-8617

guidance, they will do little to raise expectations for future growth. We still need akiko.kuwahara@jpmorgan.com

to confirm whether companies have strategies to grow their core brands and JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

improve overall margins.

• Rohto Pharmaceutical (4527, Overweight): We expect April–June sales

growth of around 5% YoY on a constant-currency basis. We forecast operating

profit growth of ¥800 million YoY to ¥12.5 billion. In Japan, we see a possible

pullback from January–March new skincare launches and demand for Hada

Labo ahead of price hikes, but expect Asia to drive sales and profit growth. We

look to confirm whether acquired firm Eu Yan Sang is contributing to sales and

profit growth. External data such as METI and point-of-sale data suggest the

company's domestic skincare sales trends in April–May were broadly in line

with to slightly above the market average.

• Shiseido (4911, Neutral): We expect April–June sales to be roughly flat YoY

on a constant-currency basis.