Ecopetrol (EC US): Hold: Upside risks post elections despite softer Brent

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ecopetrol (EC US): Hold: Upside risks post elections despite softer Brent

24 June 2026

Ecopetrol (EC US) EquitiesOil & Gas

Hold: Upside risks post elections despite softer Brent Colombia

◆ Colombian elections outcome: positive for the oil & gas sector

MAINTAIN HOLD

◆ How much is priced in? Sensitivity analysis to discount rates

TARGET PRICE (USD) PREVIOUS TARGET (USD)

◆ Retain Hold, with higher USD16.50/ADR TP (from USD14.20) 16.50 14.20

on improved macroeconomic outlook

SHARE PRICE (USD) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

Oil & gas hopes: Based on its policy proposals, the de la Espriella election win could 14.59 +13.1%

translate into a new and market-friendlier energy policy similar to that introduced by (as of 24 Jun 2026)

President Milei in Argentina, in which hydrocarbon production is seen as the root of

MARKET DATA

economic growth and fiscal stability, with increased export revenue of crude and Market cap (USDm) 29,995 Free float 12%

lower imports of gas, benefiting the balance of payments and fiscal outlook. Such Market cap (USDm) 29,995 BBG EC US

3m ADTV (USDm) 47 RIC EC.N

changes could be possible with new oil & gas awards, a new oil tax regime to

incentivize capex from domestic and global players, the end of several tax disputes FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (USD)

(on the imports of fuels, for example), and support for fracking. We see the oil & gas Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

HSBC EPS 1.21 1.55 1.69 1.92

sector possibly driving an investment cycle and FDI inflows, under a supportive oil HSBC EPS (prev) 1.82 1.85 1.63 1.92

price environment. We discuss details in Colombia elections (21 June 2026). The Change (%) -33.3 -16.3 3.6 -0.3

Consensus EPS 1.25 1.90 1.87 1.72

new government takes office on 7 August. Watch for changes at NOC Ecopetrol’s PE (x) 12.0 9.4 8.6 7.6