Bulls Not Overly Deterred by Guide Down; Likely Reflects Positioning, Few Alternatives: 2H Yield Reset: War Or Something Else?

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Bulls Not Overly Deterred by Guide Down; Likely Reflects Positioning, Few Alternatives: 2H Yield Reset: War Or Something Else?

23 June 2026

Carnival Corp.

though, is that despite today's weakness, the stock still closed 14% higher than it

did on March 26 (prior to 1Q earnings), in line with the SPX's move over that same

period. We acknowledge that CCL was always likely to be in favor when investors

think about gaining exposure to stocks that should benefit from an end to the war

and lower oil prices.

This, coupled with the lowest short interest amongst all cruise peers, seems to

neatly validate our thesis that CCL effectively remains a consensus long stock.

Recent investor conversations have yielded similar results, with a majority clearly

expressing a preference to be long CCL (sometimes with, sometimes without a

corresponding cruise hedge). For the most part, we believe bulls are attracted to

CCL's relative valuation within the group and recent commencement of share

repurchases, the pace of which could still sustain or accelerate from here.

We further believe that CCL is benefitting from positioning within the broader

consumer discretionary space (particularly gaming/lodging/leisure). We are

aware that many investors remain wary of large cap lodging valuations, see

various challenges within the broader gaming landscape, and struggle to identity

suitable alternatives within a Leisure sub-sector (ex-cruise) that is generally

characterized by smaller market caps/less trading liquidity and certain secular

challenges in its own right, depending on the specific comp group being

evaluated.

As such, CCL's imperfect outlook (at least as far as the 2H yield cut goes) may

have an offset in the form of favorable positioning - particularly among investors