Initiate at Underperform, The Bittersweet Reality

研报英文原文证据摘录

Initiate at Underperform, The Bittersweet Reality

Switzerland | Food

Lindt EquityJuneResearch25, 2026

INITIATING COVERAGEInitiate at Underperform, The Bittersweet

RATING UNDERPERFORMReality

PRICE CHF97,200.00^

LISN SW has suffered YTD (-22% v SXXP +7%) after cutting FY26 guide

below mid-term ambition. This followed a weak Xmas season & a growing PRICE TARGET | % TO PT CHF81,660.00 | -16%

CHF134,800.00 -

retailer/ consumer pricing level backlash. Debate centres now on the 52W HIGH-LOW CHF91,900.00

pricing/margin risk & credibility of mid-term LFL guidance of 6-8% pa. FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 46.9% | 17.05

We see more cuts needed for FY26/27 pricing & margin, to restore MARKET CAP CHF22.5B | CHF22.5B

competitiveness, & a reality check re mid-term growth (JEFe 5-6%). That TICKER LISN SW

threatens today's 29x NTM P/E; Underperform. ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

We see Lindt's post-2022 pricing decisions & margin progress as unsustainable. Consensus

still assumes a return towards the mid-term 6-8% growth framework, with margin expansion. FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

That threatens an earnings miss of 5%/11% in FY26/27. We argue: 2026 2027 2026 2027

REV NA NA -1% -3%

1. Pricing overshot, now requires reset. The 2022–25 cocoa shock enabled >50% cumulative

EPS NA NA -5% -11%

pricing, driving mid-teen organic EBIT growth. That is well ahead of historical norms of ~7%pa.

This has pushed the brand price point meaningfully higher, after years of real term price

decreases; detaching it from mass-market price levels & alienating the 'marginal consumer', we 2026 (CHF) 1Half 2Half FY

think. Early signs of strain are emerging via: weaker distributor demand, elevated promotional EPS -- -- 3,050.68

intensity & selective price rollbacks.