Yara: Weak short-term fundamentals warrant more downside to 2H26 consensus – Remain UW

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Yara: Weak short-term fundamentals warrant more downside to 2H26 consensus – Remain UW

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

25 June 2026

Yara Underweight

YAR.OL, YAR NO

Weak short-term fundamentals warrant more downside Price (24 Jun 26):Nkr441.00

to 2H26 consensus – Remain UW Price Target (Dec-27):Nkr400.00

In our last report on Yara on 07 June 2026, we highlighted that the share price did not European Chemicals

capture the material reduction in global urea prices as supply improved following the AC Angelina Glazova, CFA

initial acute phase of disruption triggered by the Middle East (ME) conflict, and that (44-20) 7134-8379

the 2026E earnings consensus was too high, not incorporating the reset in market angelina.glazova@jpmorgan.com

prices. Since then, urea prices have declined by another ~20% on average, falling Chetan Udeshi, CFA

below the pre-conflict levels, 2026E adj EBITDA Bloomberg consensus has been (44-20) 7742-7034

revised lower by 8% to $3.7bn, while Yara’s shares have corrected by ~14% in EUR chetan.x.udeshi@jpmorgan.com

terms and are now up ~10% YtD, broadly in line with the EU Chemicals sector. Given J.P. Morgan Securities plc

the pullback in the shares, we have been receiving questions as to whether it may be

Specialist Sales contact details:

time to revisit Yara’s investment case and turn more positive; however, we remain UW

for now, as market fundamentals are likely to stay weak in the near term and may result Sam Edmunds - Specialist Sales -

European Industrials

in further declines in urea prices. We expect urea prices to remain under pressure in (44-20) 7742-8733

the near term due to improving supply from China, ME, and particularly Iran (where sam.edmunds@jpmorgan.com

trade restrictions were temporarily waived), alongside seasonally low demand