Genmab: Uncompelling risk/reward into 1L DLBCL and JNJ 1L head and neck data for Rybrevant at ESMO

研报英文原文证据摘录

Genmab: Uncompelling risk/reward into 1L DLBCL and JNJ 1L head and neck data for Rybrevant at ESMO

Marjan Daeipour - Specialist Sales - European Healthcare AC (44 20) 7134-1329 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nmarjan.daeipour@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 June 2026

Genmab: Uncompelling risk/reward into 1L DLBCL and JNJ 1L head and

neck data for Rybrevant at ESMO

Marjan Daeipour

+44 207 134 1329

marjan.daeipour@jpmorgan.com

Shares have bounced off the lows driven by rotation into defensives/pharma and short covering into H2 clinical read outs. First

read out (imminent) will be EPCORE DLBCL-4 trial for Epkinly in 2nd line DLBCL. This compares Epkinly+Lenalidomide vs

Rituxan+GemOx, with mgmt confident on the read out. We would expect a stat sig result but the hazard ratio could be lower than

Roche’s STARGLO (Columvi+ R-GemOX vs R-GemOX) at 0.4 as Lenalidomide is less efficacious than R-GemOX and also

lower than SUNMO Commercially, 2L DLBCL does not move the needle for GMAB with JPMe peak sales at $0.2bn at 70% PoS

and going to 100% POS would imply c. 50bp upside to our NPV/share.

Investors could be excited on the read across from this 2L study to the key 1L DLBCL trial, which is more commercially relevant

(JPMe $1.3bn at 70% PoS). However, in our view, a direct read is not appropriate given the differing chemo backbone between

the 2L and 1L with 1L trial in combination with R-CHOP. 1L DLBCL trial is expected to read out in H2. We believe this read out

will be the final rather than interim read out even though mgmt have not commented on whether an interim has passed or not. Per

Zain Ebrahim’s note, we expect efficacy to be broadly comparable with Roche’s POLARIX trial in the range of 28-32% rather

than some expectations for efficacy above POLARIX.