Shionogi (4507): Earnings model update: Lowering operating profit forecasts to reflect SG&A expense guidance

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Shionogi (4507): Earnings model update: Lowering operating profit forecasts to reflect SG&A expense guidance

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

24 June 2026

Shionogi (4507) Neutral

4507.T, 4507 JP

Earnings model update: Lowering operating profit Price (24 Jun 26):¥2,821

forecasts to reflect SG&A expense guidance ▼Price Target (Dec-26):¥2,900 Prior (Dec-26):¥3,100

We revise our earnings estimates for FY2026 and beyond based on the FY2026

guidance. We lower our price target from ¥3,100 to ¥2,900 and maintain our Japan Equity Research

Neutral rating. We raise our HIV royalty estimates above our prior estimates and Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals/

factor in sales of US XOCOVA and olorofim, an antifungal that succeeded in a Medical Technologies & Services

global Phase 3 trial. We lower our operating profit estimates for FY2026 and AC Seiji Wakao, Ph.D.

beyond to reflect SG&A expenses in FY2026 guidance, which was higher than we (81-3) 6736-8612

had previously expected. We raise our FY2026 net profit estimate, as the use of seiji.wakao@jpmorgan.com

tax-loss carryforwards at the US subsidiary should lower the company’s tax Yugo R. Kamimura, Ph.D.

burden, but we lower our estimates from FY2027 onward. (81-3) 6736-8635

yugo.kamimura@jpmorgan.com

Shionogi’s share price fell as FY2026 guidance for operating profit and net profit Naoko Saito

came in below stock market expectations. Like other pharmaceutical companies, (81-3) 6736-8693

Shionogi has been affected by the shifting of funds into AI and semiconductors. naoko.saito@jpmorgan.com

Zatolmilast’s Phase 3 trial for Fragile X syndrome missed its primary endpoint, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

marking the end of near-term pipeline events. A lack of catalysts looks set to persist Key Changes (FYE Mar)