China Economic Perspectives: China Housing Survey: Regional Stabilization

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China Economic Perspectives: China Housing Survey: Regional Stabilization

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China Economic Perspectives Economics

ChinaChina Housing Survey: Regional Stabilization

Jennifer Zhong

Economist

Home purchase intention edged up while sentiment stayed subdued jennifer-a.zhong@ubs.com

+86-105-832 8324

UBS Evidence Lab's latest China Housing survey of 2,500 respondents across mainland

China (April 8 - May 4; > Access Dataset) shows signs of stabilization in some cities and Yu Song

Economistregions. The improvement is visible but narrow: purchase intentions edged up, price

S1460526010002

expectations have become less negative, and concerns on housing delivery eased at the

yu-za.song@ubs.com

margin. Meanwhile, sentiment remains subdued and selling intentions are strong. Softer +86-10-5832 8508

income expectation continues to be a constraint. See also our property team's note.

John Lam, CFA

Analyst

Dispersion among city tiers and regions: tier 1 stood out

john-za.lam@ubs.com

The more important signal, in our view, is dispersion across city tiers and regions. Tier-1 +852-2971 6358

cities demonstrate a clear recovery in confidence, supported by improving income

Vera Gong, CFA

expectations, less negative wealth effect, policy relaxation, and a better price outlook Analyst

compared to the November survey. Lower-tier cities and less-developed areas remain vera.gong@ubs.com

constrained by weaker income prospects, softer balance sheets and more cautious price +852-2971 8950

expectations. Survey results echo the latest signs of an early recovery in tier-1 cities.

Grace Wang

More policy supports are likely S1460524050003

Survey results indicate that both housing-specific measures (mortgage rate cut, down- grace-zc.wang@ubs.com