UBS Evidence Lab inside: Survey Signals Structural Share Loss, with Limited Positives

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UBS Evidence Lab inside: Survey Signals Structural Share Loss, with Limited Positives

Powered by Lab Global23 JuneResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Dillard's Inc Equities

AmericasUBS Evidence Lab inside: Survey Signals

Structural Share Loss, with Limited Positives Retailers, Apparel

12-month rating Sell

12m price target US$465.00Our $465 price target implies 18% downside:

We believe market share loss and elevated SG&A investments will limit Dillard's LT

growth potential. Importantly, we think the market is underappreciating the impact Price (22 Jun 2026) US$569.36

from these factors on DDS's earnings outlook. We forecast a 2% 5-yr. EPS CAGR and RIC: DDS.N BBG: DDS US

expect disappointing earnings growth to catalyze DDS's stock towards our $465 PT. UBS

Evidence Lab's 9th annual US Off-Price and Department Store Retailers Consumer Trading data and key metrics

Survey reinforces our conviction in this view. Here are 4 key survey insights: 52-wk range US$730.73-407.51

Market cap. US$8.91b

Customer attrition signals structural share loss despite improving demand.

Shares o/s 15.7m (COM)

The survey shows Dillard's customers NTM purchase intent rebounded to 20% this

Free float 34%

year from -13% in last year's survey. However, DDS is not capturing incremental

Avg. daily volume ('000) 26.4

demand as customers gain-loss remains negative at -7%, marking nine

Avg. daily value (m) US$15.2

consecutive waves of losses and underscoring sustained competitive

displacement. This weak trend in our view (Figure 9) reinforces ongoing customer Common s/h equity (01/27E) US$1.89b

churn vs peers, particularly Off-Price retailers. Additionally, switching risk remains P/BV (01/27E) 4.6x

elevated, with 18% of consumers shifting to Off-Price when incentivized (Fig. 25). Net debt to EBITDA (01/27E) NM