N.A. Chems and Pkg‘g: Plastics Monthly: June Plastics: Lower from here

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N.A. Chems and Pkg‘g: Plastics Monthly: June Plastics: Lower from here

Global Research

23 June 2026ab

N.A. Chems and Pkg'g: Plastics Monthly Equities

AmericasJune Plastics: Lower from here

Chemicals, Commodity

Joshua Spector, CFA

Lower spot market prices skews risk toward lower margins in 3Q Analyst

The announcement of a potential resolution in the Middle East resulted in a further joshua.spector@ubs.com

sell off of plastics producers in our coverage. We expect continued volatility with +1-212-713 6188

the daily headline flow and likely lag in actual implementations, but a clearer end Lucas Beaumont

to the conflict means any strength in oil/plastics prices has likely faded. This makes Analyst

the setup more negative for plastics producers, but the market has now already lucas.beaumont@ubs.com

moved to price in minimal benefits from the price spike. Our estimates for DOW, +1-212-713 4809

LYB and WLK reflect a peak for petchem pricing in 2Q with pricing to begin to ease Christopher Perrella

in 3Q and normalizing into 2027 - link. There is still ongoing debate about the Analyst

length of the price spike and how quickly prices will return to preconflict levels. christopher.perrella@ubs.com

Consultants now model PE price declines in 3Q (PE down 18 cpp vs. down 6 cpp +1-212-713 1443

prior), which could be ~16%/13%/10% downside to DOW/LYB/WLK vs 3Q Anojja Shah

consensus. Analyst

anojja.shah@ubs.com

We remain more cautious on DOW/LYB, both Neutral rated, as the narratives +1-312-525 4310

peaked on higher earnings and commodity prices started to roll. We also see

James Cannon

further risk as the PE S/D could more quickly return to oversupply. We have a Buy

Associate Analyst

rating on WLK, since there was less of a price spike in PVC and there is less room james-p.cannon@ubs.com