SPM/SUBC, SPM, EU GAS DEMAND, ENI: EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary Oil - O&G - Utilities - Infrastructure

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SPM/SUBC, SPM, EU GAS DEMAND, ENI: EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary Oil - O&G - Utilities - Infrastructure

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales - European Energy AC (44-20) 7134-1356 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 June 2026

return tankers to the Persian Gulf. The risk is that they could become stuck again if the conflict reignites and the Strait of Hormuz

is closed.

- Russia said it was weighing a ban on diesel exports to avoid domestic shortages after Ukraine intensified attacks on its

refineries. Currently diesel exports from Russia are blocked only for traders that don’t produce their own fuel. Last year Russia

exported 907k bpd of diesel, according to BBG, though this fell to 813k in the first 5m of 2026. Total annual seaborne exports of

diesel globally are c6m bpd.

J. P. Morgan View

- FP had a quieter session, with no notable news on the US and Iran, though Russia's announcement that it is weighing a diesel

export ban may have supported FP mid-session. The Atlantic Basin phys market remains weak, with indicators beginning to slip

into contango as more supply becomes available following the Strait's reopening.

- DOE stats will be released tomorrow, and we are forecasting headline inventories to draw by ~4.5mb and Cushing to draw

~875kb. This would leave US inventories at very low levels and bring Cushing below 20mb, the lowest level in five years

- Prior to the invasion of Ukraine nearly half of Europe's diesel supply came from Russia, supplemented by flows from the Middle

East, India and the US, by 2024 that was just 5%.

Markets - SPX was down 10bps from the European close to finish down 1.4% on the day, RTY -1%, NASDAQ -2.2%. Volumes