EMEA Sustainability: Europe’s energy transition: a capex cycle still underappreciated by the market

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EMEA Sustainability: Europe’s energy transition: a capex cycle still underappreciated by the market

Global Research

23 June 2026ab

EMEA Sustainability Equities

Europe including UKEurope’s energy transition: a capex cycle still

underappreciated by the market Global Sustainability

Charles Fruitiere

Analyst

charles.fruitiere@ubs.com

Scale of opportunity: a €600bn annual investment theme +44-20-7567 4123

Delivering Europe’s energy transition requires c.€600–660bn of annual investment Alisa Dudchak

through 2030, based on European Commission estimates, implying a structural step- Analyst

change in capital deployment across the energy system. The key point, in our view, is not alisa.dudchak@ubs.com

simply the size of the investment requirement, but the duration and breadth of the cycle. +44-20-7567 0844

We think investors may still be underestimating how long and wide this capex cycle Victoria Kalb

could run, as the transition moves beyond renewable generation into grids, storage, Analyst

electrification and the decarbonisation of high-emitting sectors. vicki.kalb@ubs.com

+65-6495 4584

What is new: security and system constraints are extending the cycle Andre Kukhnin

The transition is no longer driven by climate policy alone. Successive energy shocks have Analyst

elevated energy security and sovereignty as strategic priorities, reinforcing the need for andre.kukhnin@ubs.com

domestic low-carbon energy, electrification and reduced reliance on imported fossil +44-20-7567 2162

fuels. At the same time, emerging constraints in grids, interconnection, flexibility Christopher Leonard

and demand-side electrification are becoming key drivers of incremental Analyst

investment. In our view, these bottlenecks do not weaken the transition story; they chris.leonard@ubs.com