Summer Heats Up, While Gas Market Cools Down

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Summer Heats Up, While Gas Market Cools Down

IdeaM

Following the announcement and signing of the 60-day US-Iran MoU last week, TTF is

now back in the low 40s €/MWh. However, unlike Brent prices, TTF has failed to break

below its previous low of ~€38/MWh on the April ceasefire announcement. This hints at a

European gas market that has become progressively tighter into summer, as gas

inventories in Europe remain low and are building at a slower pace YoY. While we bring

down our price forecasts in this note, as the risk-reward now seems more balanced, with a

clearer path to a restart of Qatari LNG flows, we still see upside risk over winter from low

gas inventory levels. We now forecast TTF at €50/MWh for Q3 26 and on average € 53/

MWh over winter 2026/27.

The Return of Qatari LNG?

Qatar LNG potentially restarting…

Following the announcement of the MoU last week, there have been several new

headlines on the potential restart timeline of the major Ras Laffan LNG facility in

Qatar. Estimates range for a start up of one month to two months: Reuters reported start

up within a month (Reuters), while Bloomberg cited a source for 50% of output within

one month and 80% within two months (Bloomberg). The latter scenario would equate to

3.3 Mt of LNG supply returning to the market in one month and 5.3 Mt back in two

months. These estimates are broadly in-line with market expectations for the restart of

the facility.

Cycling of the LNG trains over the last few months should help speed up the restart.

All undamaged trains at the Ras Laffan facility have been brought online at some point in

the last two months, indicating standby of trains rather than full shutdown. This has

helped compress restart timelines for the facility to 1-2 months.