Improving Line of Sight to Faster Growth, Fairly Priced; Initiating Coverage at EW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Improving Line of Sight to Faster Growth, Fairly Priced; Initiating Coverage at EW

rough 2028. This Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

positions OGE slightly below the average growth outlook for regulated utilities but framework** = Based on consensus methodology

doesn't yet include significant transmission and generation capex likely to be §e == MorganConsensusStanleydataResearchis providedestimatesby Refinitiv Estimates

finalized in the next several quarters. The company's system needs an additional 1.8 Quarterly EPS ($)

GW of generation capacity by 2032 based on the current outlook for load growth, 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

with a new data center from Google a meaningful driver. OGE will also be involved Q1 0.31 - 0.24a - 0.31

in building a portion of a significant new interstate transmission line, with timing and Q2 0.53 - 0.62 - 0.66

Q3 1.14 - 1.31 - 1.33

routing to be finalized later this year. In aggregate we would expect the additional Q4 0.34 - 0.27 - 0.31

investments over the next ~5 years to push the company's long-term EPS CAGR up e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

by at least 1% closer to the 7.5-8.0% range.

We would look for additional large load customers or greater generation capex

to drive upside to consensus from here. Consensus EPS already implies a 7.8%

CAGR through 2030, above the company's 5-7% guidance and 6-7% medium-term

targets. Management has indicated there are several additional potential large loads

in negotiations to build in the company's service territory, which could represent

further upside to the load growth outlook and require further generation

investment to serve.