JPM | Staggering Chemicals adds in Q3, Russia Considers Full Diesel Export Ban, MSCI Postpones Indonesia Review, Nanya Plastics Positive Management Tone, Peak profitability for India Metals?

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | Staggering Chemicals adds in Q3, Russia Considers Full Diesel Export Ban, MSCI Postpones Indonesia Review, Nanya Plastics Positive Management Tone, Peak profitability for India Metals?

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

24 June 2026

JPM | Staggering Chemicals adds in Q3, Russia Considers Full

Diesel Export Ban, MSCI Postpones Indonesia Review, Nanya

Plastics Positive Management Tone, Peak profitability for India

Metals?

Anmol Mehta

+852 2800 8896

anmol.mehta@jpmorgan.com

Good morning, Asian markets had a mini flash crash yesterday (Kospi -10%, CSI 300 -3%) a due to fears around quarterly

rebalancing (JPM expects $165B of net equity selling in June End) that is set to hit next week as well as very lofty expectations

around Micron earnings. This bled through to unwinds in AI levered commodity equities - copper equities in China the worst hit

(CMOC -11%, JXC -11%, Zijin -9%) but also the whole base Metals complex (Aluminum -4%, Nickel -3% and copper -2%)

which has screened as the most concentrated area of spec positioning & was subject to unwind. There are no changes in

fundamentals however & KOSPI has rebounded +4.2% this morning.

In commodities, what really caught my eye yesterday was BNEF’s latest update on Q3 Chemical Capacity additions, where the

numbers are truly staggering. Based on their bottom-up tracking (most projects are 90% complete – they are seeing close to

12Mtpa of Ethylene capacity, 10Mtpa of PE capacity & 7.5MT of PP capacity coming on in Q3. This represents roughly 5-7%

of the Ethylene, PE & PP capacity coming on in a very short amount of time & Q426/2027 numbers do not look good either. I

think you get material worsening of PE/PP spreads in the next quarter & H2 – and the olefins players revert to becoming

structural shorts.