Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles: Ambitious FY31E targets driven by EVs and CNG EV-led expansion, portfolio diversification and margin discipline to drive next phase of growth

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Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles: Ambitious FY31E targets driven by EVs and CNG EV-led expansion, portfolio diversification and margin discipline to drive next phase of growth

Global Markets Research

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles TAMO.NS TMPV IN 23 June 2026

EQUITY: AUTOS & AUTO PARTS

RatingAmbitious FY31E targets driven by EVs and CNG Remains Neutral

Target priceEV-led expansion, portfolio diversification and margin Remains INR 373

discipline to drive next phase of growth

Closing price

23 June 2026 INR 355WeattendedTataMotorsPassengerVehiclesInvestorDay2026on23June,wheremanagement

highlighteditslong-termtargets(FY29E/FY31E).Thekeytakeawaysareasbelow:

Implied upside +5.1%

Key takeaways: Volumes: TMPV expects India PV to grow ~2x from 640k in FY26 to 1.2mn+ by

FY31E (~15% CAGR), implying a ~20% market share by FY31E (vs ~14% currently) significantly Market Cap (USD mn) 13,781.5

ADT (USD mn) 48.3ahead of industry growth of a 6-7% CAGR to ~6.4mn units by FY31F.

New launches & penetration: Management targets six new models and 20+ refreshes mainly led

by EVs (four new launches), EV/CNG mix targeted at ~30%+/25%, ahead of industry by FY31F. Relative performance chart

Margins and costs: TMPV targets 5-6% ICE cost reduction over the next two years. It targets India

PV EBITDA margin of 8% by FY29E and 10% by FY31E (vs 6.9% in FY26) – with EV business

turning EBITDA positive; and group EBIT margin of ~7%/10% by FY29E/31E. For JLR, commodity

cost pressure will have a large impact on FY27E margins, according to the company.

FCF: TMPV targets India PV cumulative FCF of >INR100bn over FY27-31E; with the consolidated

group to be net debt free by FY29E and have significant FCF in FY31E.

Estimates (FY27F/28F): We estimate India PV volumes of 757k (+18% y-y) /795k (+5% y-y) and