Not going anywhere; pullback in leader creates attractive entry, initiate Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Not going anywhere; pullback in leader creates attractive entry, initiate Buy

growth algorithms in mid- to large-cap medtech at a time when the

sector is short on attractive growth stories. We initiate with a $190 target

price, and believe there should be substantial additional upside ahead if

PODD shows it’s executing against its LRP and returns to a clean beat and

raise cadence over the next few quarters.

n Alongside this launch, we will host an expert call today (23 June) at 1PM

with an endocrinologist. During the call we will discuss key near-term

trends in the CGM and AID markets, as well as key topics for PODD around

the recall, tubeless competition, type-2 traction, and fully-closed loop.

Clients can click here for the sign-up link.

n We note this is an in-depth, primer-like initiation on PODD and the broader

CGM space that employs multiple different frameworks and scenario

analyses around topics and dynamics that we don’t have full visibility into,

but believe are worth trying to quantify or frame to help us and clients

understand the business and its drivers. As always we welcome feedback

on these, and direct clients that are more familiar with the name/industry

and its history to the report’s table of contents for specific topics of interest.

Valuation: Our $190 target price reflects a ~13x 2027E EV/EBITDA target multiple or

~23x 2027E EPS, well below historical levels when the stock traded on a sales

multiple and a 22-24% discount to the six-month averages which generally captures

the period in which it re-rated lower. We view this as warranted given PODD's status

as the clear market leader from a user and new-start perspective with continued

runway for US and OUS growth in type-1, an attractive mutli-year growth story in US