Australian housing: Shifting gears

研报英文原文证据摘录

Australian housing: Shifting gears

Tom Kennedy (61-2) 9003-7981 Australia Economic Research J P M O R G A Ntom.kennedy@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited 24 June 2026

Australian housing: Shifting tion over that episode is mixed and, in our view, ultimately

inconclusive as to any inflationary impact. Nationally, quar-

gears terly rental inflation rose over 1985–87; however, once set

against the broader inflation backdrop, real rents (deflated by

• The Government now has the numbers to pass May’s headline CPI) appear to have remained relatively low and sta-

Budget, including much-publicized housing reforms ble through the period (Figure 2).

• History suggests removing negative gearing has little

Figure 2: Nominal and real residential rental inflation effect on rental inflation in the short-run

%oya

• We think residential rental inflation has peaked, but 15 Nominal rents Removal of Real rents will remain elevated given supply/demand backdrop

negative gearing

With support from the Greens, Australia’s Labor government

appears to have the numbers to pass May’s Budget in full 5

before the winter sitting ends late next week. The Budget’s

proposed housing changes, particularly to negative gearing 0

(no longer allowing rental property losses to be deducted

against other taxable income) have triggered a further shift in -5

81 84 87 90

property market sentiment, reflected in sharply lower auction Source: Haver, J.P. Morgan

clearance rates (Figure 1).

Regional outcomes over that period were also mixed. Nomi-

Figure 1: Auction clearance rates and house prices nal rents in Sydney and Perth rose strongly, but this appears

%oya %-pts, 12 month change more closely tied to idiosyncratic supply/demand conditions