Asia Pacific Reports/Notes

研报英文原文证据摘录

Asia Pacific Reports/Notes

Asia Pacific Equity Research

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Asia Technology Tracker 24 June 2026

UMC (Neutral), Taiwan

Strong 8” price hikes, sporadic 12” price increases, but low capacity growth and rising long-term

competition; Stay Neutral and raise PT to NT$140 (Gokul Hariharan)

We raise our Jun-27 PT on UMC to NT$140 (based on 20x 12M forward P/E, from 13x previously) to reflect

near-term positive sentiment on price increases amidst tighter mature 12” capacity. However, we stay

Neutral and would prefer VIS (OW) and PSMC (OW) due to stronger long-term growth and AI potential for

VIS, and bigger margin uptick from memory Foundry price increases for PSMC. UMC price hikes should

kick in from 3Q26, with a 3-10% range for various customers, and if the current tight capacity situation

persists, we could see one more price hike in 2027. However, we are not confident that gross margins can

exceed prior cycle peaks, due to increases in costs and a rising depreciation trend. Longer-term, UMC is not

building any new Fab capacity and the only growth is likely to come from the Intel 12nnm joint venture ramp

in 2027, although the pace of the ramp and profit sharing remain uncertain, given manufacturing capacity

will belong to Intel. Medium-term, we believe TSMC is also pushing back strongly on the thesis that its

mature 12” capacity is likely to shrink dramatically, which, in our view, was the basis for some of the price

hikes that UMC had put through in early 2026.