El Niño: Assessing Path Ahead

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El Niño: Assessing Path Ahead

Update

June 24, 2026 12:24 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MMaynilad Water Services, Inc. | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

El Niño: Assessing Path Ahead Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.comRyan M Heng +65 6834-6719

Ryan.Heng@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6465

Key Takeaways Vivek Rajamani

Water levels at Manila's main upstream dam are critically low, approaching 2019 Vivek.Rajamani@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6740

levels when severe drought hit Metro Manila. Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Pranitha Shetty

Down stream Ipo and La Mesa Dams remain at normal levels, with regulators Research Associate

allocating higher volumes for municipal water consumption away from irrigation. Pranitha.Shetty@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-3022

Hinal Choudhary

Maynilad has also optimized water supplies by reducing water leakages by ~40% Research Associate

since 2019 and installing additional water storage (now ~1 day of consumption). Hinal.Choudhary@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2044

Completion of Wawa dam (owned by Manila Water) in Dec-25 also added

~710MLD (+10%) of water supply to Metro Manila.

Higher energy prices and El Niño-related risks to water supplies will test the new

regulatory framework implemented in 2021. However, there are risks, as in 2019, of Maynilad Water Services, Inc. (MYNLD.PS, MYNLD PM)

a calibrated recovery of additional costs related to higher energy prices and ASEAN Utilities and Infrastructure | Philippines

upfronting of capex to reduce water leakages (non-revenue water) further. Maynilad Stock Rating Overweight

trades at ~5% dividend yield in line with Manila Water (not covered) and Manila Industry View In-Line

Price target PP25.10

Electric. Up/downside to price target (%) 18