Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO.AX): Controlling the controllable?

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Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO.AX): Controlling the controllable?

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23 Jun 2026 17:59:53 ET │ 14 pages

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO.AX)

Controlling the controllable?

CITI'S TAKE

Despite JDO’s ~10% outperformance over the past month, it has been the

laggard YTD amongst the banks in share price terms as investors have

feared the impact of a slowing economy and stagflation. Despite the macro Buy

risk, we find many investors are predisposed to the longer-term story but Price (22 Jun 26 16:00) A$1.52

wary of the near-term ‘sentiment’ risk. While that is true and hard to identify

Target price A$2.20the point of comfort, what we would call out is the solid underlying progress

on the business. In recent months we have seen strong traction in savings Expected share price return 44.7%

deposits, paydown of debt and a capital relief securitization. All of these Expected dividend yield 0.0%

measures are reflections of the funding strategy evolving into a more mature

Expected total return 44.7%form, somewhat de-risking the pathway to longer-term scale metrics.

Despite the macro noise, we reiterate our Buy recommendation as we see a Market Cap A$1,704M

bank with a strong growth potential that is seemingly executing well. US$1,195M

A crucial period for growth — With business credit growth skewed to the June

quarter, the next two APRA prints (30 June & 31 July) are the most important for the

year. Macro noise aside, we think guidance is achievable given the strength of the Price Performance

pipeline, moderation in attrition and movement in funding. Given JDO largely pre-

(RIC: JDO.AX, BB: JDO AU)funds its growth, we think the ~$800m of deposit growth over the past two months

and $750m securitization are an indication of confidence.