Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Hermes International S.C.A. (HRMS.PA)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Group % Change - constant currency

8.9 7.1 9.1 10.7

(%)

Europe % Change - constant currency

10.3 6.5 9.7 11.2

Americas % Change - constant

12.4 14.0 10.0 10.0

currency (%)

APAC % Change - constant currency

6.5 5.5 8.3 10.4

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Spending of Chinese nationals on luxury goods RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Brand desirability Operating margin lifted by a higher share of

Leather goods supply most profitable categories in the sales mix Sales / 16,754

Revenue 16,322 17,051

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE (€, mn) 16,771 Discount rate: two-thirds of Hermes' equity

0-10% India value is in its TV

0-10% Japan FX: majority of Hermès' products are 6,772

EBIT 0-10% Latin America manufactured in the euro zone 6,529 6,844

(€, mn)

0-10% MEA Overdependence on a few iconic products? We 6,738

0-10% UK estimate Birkin & Kelly bags account for ~25%

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland & 33% of sales & profits, respectively 10-20% 44.93 China and India Middle-income consumers become the main EPS

10-20% North America growth driver (€) 42.60 47.04

20-30% Europe ex UK 44.50

20-30% Mainland China

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 18.78

DPSView explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 65.7% 15.00 30.00

(€)

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.6x 20.07

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Net Exposure 7.6%

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

5/5 3 Month Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MOST Horizon exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market