Enphase Energy: J.P. Morgan Natural Resources Conference Takeaways

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Enphase Energy: J.P. Morgan Natural Resources Conference Takeaways

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 June 2026

Enphase Energy Neutral

ENPH, ENPH US

J.P. Morgan Natural Resources Conference Takeaways Price (22 Jun 26):$52.41

We hosted ENPH's Head of IR for a fireside chat at our J.P. Morgan Natural

Resources Conference. The conversation centered on the residential solar market

reset and recovery trajectory, the scaling of the Propel prepaid lease program, the

downstream ecosystem value embedded in the safe harbor backlog, and the market Clean Energy, Power Infrastructure,

opportunity for the IQ solid-state transformer (SST). ENPH struck a cautiously and Sustainable Investing

optimistic tone, acknowledging near-term headwinds while pointing to several AC Mark Strouse, CFA

concrete recovery vectors across the US, Europe, and the data center SST market. (1-212) 622-8244

We rate ENPH Neutral. mark.w.strouse@jpmorgan.com

Michael G Fairbanks

• US market has reset; Propel is the key recovery driver. The US residential (1-212) 622-4908

solar market is tracking down 30-35% y/y in 2026 following the expiration of michael.fairbanks@jpmchase.com

the 25D tax credit, with 1H26 representing the trough. The structural shift away Anna Zhu

from outright ownership toward lease-based financing has made Propel — a (1-212) 622-0012

TPO-led prepaid lease program exclusively using ENPH equipment — the anna.zhu@jpmorgan.com

most important near-term demand recovery lever. Propel is currently running J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

at ~200 originations/week, equating to roughly 100MW and 140MWh of

batteries annually, or approximately $100mm in annualized equipment

revenue — already ~10% of ENPH's current quarterly core revenue run rate

while still in pilot across only four states.