DHL Group: Flash News: Management change announced; Group CFO Melanie Kreis to be succeeded in June 2027 by Joe Joseph in an orderly transition plan

研报英文原文证据摘录

DHL Group: Flash News: Management change announced; Group CFO Melanie Kreis to be succeeded in June 2027 by Joe Joseph in an orderly transition plan

Alexia Dogani AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 3493-3791 23 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

alexia.dogani@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

DHL Group (Overweight; Price Target: €60.00)

Investment Thesis

We have an Overweight rating on DHL as we view its medium-term returns and growth

prospects as undervalued by the market, despite a reliance on global economic growth. We

see attractive GDP+ growth compared to the European logistics sector driven by exposure

to e-commerce, outsourcing and sustainability while the company continues to digitalise to

drive productivity and cost improvements, leading to our expectation of an EBIT CAGR of

c.7% (2026-29E). Improving FCF should lead to ongoing share buybacks and 12% pa EPS

growth, which on top of a dividend yield of c.5% offers an attractive TSR.

Valuation

We value DHL using a SOTP-based multiple analysis on 2027E EV/EBIT. We value each

division separately, applying a peer-comparative multiple adjusted for future growth to

better reflect the different growth and return characteristics of each division. We apply a

25% integrator discount to our SOTP, towards the low end of the historical discount range,

arriving at our Dec-27 price target of €60.

DHL – SOTP valuation methodology

Divisional SOTP based on listed peer EV/EBIT valuation vs. growth on 2027E

Sum of The Parts 2027E EBIT TargetpeerEV/ valuationEBIT based on 1 year growthforward EBIT impliedPeer multiplevalue

DHL Express 4,168 15.5 9.3% 64,610

DHL Global Forwarding, Freight 856 15.0 5.5% 12,844

DHL Supply Chain 1,295 17 6.9% 22,020

DHL eCommerce 328 15.0 10.1% 4,926

P&P Germany 1,028 12 -20.9% 12,333