Heineken appoints JDE Peet‘s outgoing Chief as CEO

研报英文原文证据摘录

Heineken appoints JDE Peet‘s outgoing Chief as CEO

Celine Pannuti, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-7123 23 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

celine.pannuti@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Heineken (Neutral; Price Target: €70.00)

Investment Thesis

Into FY26, we expect still subdued volume performance but with a return to growth. Pricing

should be constrained albeit still positive, which combined with premiumisation should

support solid LFL delivery. Benign COGS/hl inflation, premiumisation and operating

efficiencies should underpin a solid MSD org. EBIT performance, which combined with no

translational FX headwind and the ongoing SBB supports our forecast for strong EPS

growth. However, we believe the stock is unlikely to outperform in the near term while the

market awaits the transition period of the new leadership and the subsequent unveiling of

an updated strategy. While we view the valuation as undemanding, with shares trading at

a DD% P/E discount to the sector (2027E) vs a 2% LT average discount, we see limited

potential for a re-rating given ongoing uncertainty around leadership and the potential for

another transition year as the new CEO adds his own views to the current stated strategy.

In addition, there is a risk that further investment may be necessary to reposition the equity

story, even if the current valuation and ytd performance appear attractive.

Valuation

Our December 2027 DCF-derived PT is €70 using a 2.0% LT growth rate and 10.5% WACC.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Risks to the downside:

• Weaker-than-expected volume and pricing in mature markets and slower-than-expected

growth in key emerging markets of Mexico, Africa and South East Asia.

• Pushback on further pricing from retailers and elevated competitor promotions.