Japan Semiconductor Equipment: Updating earnings forecasts (June 2026)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Japan Semiconductor Equipment: Updating earnings forecasts (June 2026)

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23 Jun 2026 03:39:42 ET │ 21 pages

Japan Semiconductor Equipment

Updating earnings forecasts (June 2026)

CITI'S TAKE

Masahiro Shibano AC

We have updated our WFE assumptions to a base case of $139bn (+27% +81-3-6776-4641

YoY) in 2026, $176bn (+26%) in 2027, and $214bn (+22%) in 2028, and a bull masahiro.shibano@citi.com

case of $147bn (+34%), $196bn (+33%), and $254bn (+30%), reflecting the

aggressive investment stance of logic/foundry and memory companies (see

this report). Japanese equipment makers indicated at the start of the FY

that they expect growth of 15%-20% YoY in CY26, and the overall trend

appears positive, including in China. Based on this, we raise our forecasts

and target prices for Tokyo Electron, Lasertec, and Screen Holdings.

Japanese firms’ WFE assumptions look conservative — At their April-May results

announcements, Japanese firms issued WFE assumptions that were conservative

relative to those of US equipment makers and to stock market expectations at that

time. For example, TEL indicated on April 30 that it expected WFE to grow 20%+ YoY

in CY26, while Screen projected growth of c15%-20% on May 13. Based on recent

newsflow, however, demand from logic/foundry and memory makers is generally

growing, and Chinese customers also appear to have adopted a more proactive

capex stance than initially expected. As a result, we think WFE assumptions may be

revised up when firms announce April-June results.

Rising price hike momentum — Our understanding is that price hike momentum

among Japanese front-end equipment makers originated with TEL. TEL’s gross

margin improved from 40% in FY3/16 to 47% in FY3/25 but has stalled owing to