June ’26 Speed Check: Keep Your Eyes on the Prize; Remain Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

June ’26 Speed Check: Keep Your Eyes on the Prize; Remain Buy

USA | Internet

Carvana EquityJuneResearch23, 2026

COMPANY UPDATEJune '26 Speed Check: Keep Your Eyes on the

RATING BUYPrize; Remain Buy

PRICE $66.67^

Our CVNA web scrape estimates Retail Unit growth slowed below 30% in recent

weeks and to low-20% in the most recent week, representing decelerations from PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $95.00 | +42%

38%/33% in Apr/May. If we assume the 2H of June follows last year's w/w 52W HIGH-LOW $97.38 - $54.46

seasonality, 2Q Retail Units would grow 33% y/y and imply 2% downside to cons. FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 58.5% | 689.19

We lower our 2Q Units below cons to reflect our scrape, but keep our forward #s MARKET CAP $75.8B

unchanged given the recent slowdown does not impact our bullish l-t outlook. TICKER CVNA ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Growth decelerated since mid-2Q: Our web scrape estimates Retail Units grew 29%/21% y/y in the

first 2 full weeks of June, which implies QTD growth of 34% y/y. The deceleration to sub-30% growth

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

in June comes after Units grew 31%/38%/33% y/y in Mar/Apr/May and 40% y/y in 1Q, with recent

2026 2027 2026 2027

month-to-month volatility in y/y growth resulting partly from the year-ago demand swings related

to the introduction of auto tariffs. We estimate Unit growth of 33% for 2Q, assuming the second half REV* NM NM NM +2%

of June follows last year's w/w seasonality. This would result in 2% downside to consensus (+37% EBITDA NM NM NM +2%

y/y) and mark the 1st miss on Retail Units in ten quarters. We think w/w volatility is unsurprising

given CVNA's rapid growth & ongoing IRC build-out may occasionally result in bottlenecks that 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

temporarily impact growth.