Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia: Fast Take

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia: Fast Take

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 25.0%

Forecast dividend yield 10.2%

Forecast stock return 35.2%

Market return assumption 11.7%

Forecast excess return 23.5%

Company Description

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (AHI) is a home improvement and lifestyle retailer founded in 1995

by Kawan Lama Sejahtera. Prior to 2025, AHI was trading under the name Ace Hardware

Indonesia. AHI has the second largest store presence in Indonesia with over 257 AZKO-

branded stores across 61 cities and 30 provinces as of 30 September 2025.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (AHI) using DCF methodology, with a risk free rate of

6.7%, WACC of 12.6% and terminal growth rate of 5%.

We believe company-specific downside risks include: 1) inadequate strategic planning

resulting in an inability to meet long-term strategic objectives; 2) lower-than-expected SSSG;

3) overstocking that leads to lower-than-expected GM; 4) investments in properties; 5) poor

location selection of store roll-out; 6) operational, resulting in product safety; 7) IT security

breaches; 8) increase in prices of raw materials and/or the lack of supply of raw materials; 9)

unexpected material change in contracts with suppliers/brand owners and brand

obsolescence; 10) unexpected adjustments in operating expenses; 11) overpaying for

property and land; 12) higher staff costs and inability to secure workers to match its pace of

growth; 13) inability to match consumer needs and appetite.

Industry-specific downside risks include: 1) changes in consumer behaviour and shifting

preference of formats of home improvement goods; 2) industry consolidation resulting in an

overall increase in competitive pressures; 3) regulatory, relating to land and property rights.