EM FI/FX Strategy Colombia: A post-election roadmap for markets

研报英文原文证据摘录

EM FI/FX Strategy Colombia: A post-election roadmap for markets

Global Research

22 June 2026ab

EM FI/FX Strategy Emerging Markets

Latin AmericaColombia: A post-election roadmap for markets

Roque Montero

Strategist

Where is risk/reward most attractive after the election? roque.montero@ubs.com

+1-203-719 2112

While right-wing outsider De la Espriella’s likely victory in the presidential runoff election

on Sunday could mark a shift toward greater fiscal and policy visibility, the narrower- Manik Narain

Strategistthan-expected margin (1% vs 5–7% pre-election polling) could increase concerns about

manik.narain@ubs.com

the pace of reforms, as markets appear to have already incorporated a more constructive +44-20-7568 3635

scenario—particularly in rates and credit, where further gains may increasingly depend

on strong fiscal signals and delivery amid congressional fragmentation. That said, the Rafael De La Fuente

Economist

COP could see a much smoother path over the summer and outperform lower-carry

rafael.delafuente@ubs.com

peers such as MXN and CLP in a low-volatility backdrop, with room for CLPCOP to move +1-203-719 7127

toward the 3.65–3.7 range, supported by elevated carry, gradual reduction of hedges,

and contained BoP risks. In this context, the announcement of the Fin Minister Andrea Casaverde

(inauguration day: Aug 7) over the coming weeks and/or a quick resumption of oil

andrea.casaverde@ubs.com

exploration permits by the incoming administration in early Aug could provide +1-203-713-2515

additional catalysts for COP outperformance. Beyond FX, this more constructive

Tasso Vasconcellosbackdrop could also support a gradual, fundamentals-driven re-rating in equities.

Analyst

tasso.vasconcellos@ubs.com