Telia Company AB: A justified but peaking premium

研报英文原文证据摘录

Telia Company AB: A justified but peaking premium

te the post-tax NPV to Telia at cSEK4-7bn, or SEK1-2/share

From To % ch Cons.

(Figure 8UBSestimatesofIcenetworksharing). Should FX tailwinds persist, we think 2027 SEK10bn FCF guidance could be 12/26E 2.14 2.03 -5 2.27

pushed towards SEK11bn (UBSe now at SEK10.9bn, 4% ahead of consensus) after 12/27E 2.39 2.35 -2 2.53

which Telia can present another 3 years of FCF growth at the next CMD, in our view. 12/28E 2.67 2.59 -3 2.75

DPS policy vs. FTTH opportunities Ondrej Cabejsek

Analyst

In this note we focus in more detail on: 1) the improving Sweden top line, incl. mission ondrej.cabejsek@ubs.com

critical, TV sustainability, and the fading currently c2pp EBITDA drag from legacy; 2) the +44-20-7568 6332

turnaround in Norway and upside from the the Ice network deal; and 3) the repair in

Oba AgboolaFinland. Telia still benchmarks as having solid OpFCF margin upside over the medium

Associate Analyst

term. However, we believe it still has material IT investments ahead and the B2B/B2G obaloluwa.agboola@ubs.com

exposure may require more capex also. As a result, we think capex normalisation won't +44-20-7568 3969

be as pronounced as with best-in-class peers. DPS growth beyond MSD may need a

change in policy and may also be limited by potential FTTH consolidation opportunities,

which could start materializing after the change in regulation, scheduled for mid-2027.

We note Telia owns just c30% of FTTH infrastructure in Sweden. See our Nordic

Telecoms Field Trip Feedback for detail on the theme incl. from PTS, the regulator.

Valuation: SOTP DCF-derived SEK51.0 PT

Telia trades on a covered 4.2% dividend yield at 2.1x ND/EBITDA and c8% 2026-28

EFCF CAGR. We increase our PT by c22% reflecting a mix of FCF upgrades incl. FX, UBSe