China Industrials Shipping supply chain weekly: trade flows, freight and Hormuz updates (week 25)

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China Industrials Shipping supply chain weekly: trade flows, freight and Hormuz updates (week 25)

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EquitiesChina Industrials

Shipping supply chain weekly: trade flows, China

freight and Hormuz updates (week 25) Industrial

Robin Xu

Analyst

bin.xu@ubs.com

Key highlights from high-frequency data +86-21-3866 8872

We compile weekly data from UBS Evidence Lab, the Ministry of Transport, UBS Evidence Zed Sheng

Lab and other third-party data providers to track the latest trade flows across shipping, Analyst

shipbuilding and ports. S1460525030003

zed.sheng@ubs.com

Hormuz reopen may result in recovery of VLCC average earnings +86-21-3866 8730

Based on Clarksons data, daily vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz picked up last Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

week, reaching 25 vessels up from ~10 previously but still well below the pre-conflict Analyst

level of 125. An initial rush for VLCC to the Persian Gulf has resulted in a spike in spot cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4375rates, while most operators are still waiting to monitor the progress of the release of

vessels in the gulf. Our Maritime Trade Disruption Monitor (> Access Dataset) indicated a William Deng

notable increase in the tankers departing eastbound from Hormuz since last Friday. Economist

VLCC average earnings from Middle East/West Africa to China rose notably last week to william-w.deng@ubs.com

+852-2971 6765reflect expectations of the reopening of the Persian Gulf, with average earnings +87%

to ~$195k/day. Xin Chen

Container shipping volume keeps rising S1460511050002

xin.chen@ubs.com

Container throughput at key ports in China increased 3% WoW and 2% YoY last week. +86-21-3866 8864