US Softlines Retail Industry Outlook: US Consumers Showing Resilience; Stay Bullish

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US Softlines Retail Industry Outlook: US Consumers Showing Resilience; Stay Bullish

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US Softlines Retail Equities

AmericasIndustry Outlook: US Consumers Showing

Resilience; Stay Bullish Retailers, Specialty

Jay Sole

Analyst

jay.sole@ubs.com

We remain bullish on Softlines stocks… +1-212-713 3559

We see more upside than downside to Street FY26 EPS estimates and Softline stock P/Es. Mauricio Serna, CFA

New June survey data shows US consumer apparel and footwear spending intentions Analyst

remain solid. US consumers’ view of the economy has been impacted by inflation mauricio.serna@ubs.com

resulting from the Middle East conflict. Yet the data shows the US consumer remains +1-212-713 9028

resilient. This is the main reason we remain bullish. Furthermore, the Softlines group P/E Natalie Koltermann

looks low. The group trades at a 23% P/E discount to the S&P 500 vs. its 8% historical Associate Analyst

avg. premium (Fig. 57). natalie.koltermann@ubs.com

+1-212-713 4229

…and like Buy-rated stocks such as ONON, GIL, TPR, BURL, and others: Aditya Kulkarni

We believe the market is overestimating the negative effects of the Iran conflict on Associate Analyst

consumer demand and Softline company margins. Plus, we believe the market is under aditya.kulkarni@ubs.com

appreciating the power of the “Wealth Effect” on consumer spending given the S&P +1-212-713 1098

500 is up 9% YTD and 26% over the LTM. Lastly, we believe the market is significantly Serge Severenchuk

underestimating the potential for AI to positively impact Softline companies’ sales and Associate Analyst

margins (link). Stocks we like and rate Buy: ONON, GIL, TPR, BURL, LEVI, RL, TJX, AEO, serge.severenchuk@ubs.com