Tesla Shares as SpaceX Trackers?

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Tesla Shares as SpaceX Trackers?

USA | Autos & Auto Parts

Tesla, Inc. EquityJuneResearch21, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGETesla Shares as SpaceX Trackers?

Tesla shares did not sell off ahead of the SPCX IPO or since. Consensus that a RATING HOLD

merger will be next and soon may turn TSLA into a tracker as shareholders try PRICE $400.49^

to minimize stake dilution. Our updated estimates reflect better Autos NT, re- PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $375.00 ($350.00) | -6%

accelerating BESS, more delays in capex ramp and below consensus 2027-28E, 52W HIGH-LOW $498.83 - $288.77

assuming launching robotaxis & humanoids will initially create loss centres. FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 74.4% | 20,275.27

Valuation & estimates remain disconnected, we adjust PT to $375. MARKET CAP $1.4T

TICKER TSLA

Tesla to track SpaceX? - The convergence of business plans and Elon Musk's desire to maintain ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

control continue to argue for merging SpaceX and Tesla, and rather soon to avoid delays in projects

like Terafab. In theory, Tesla could become lower priority and a weaker Tesla share price favors Elon

Musk but he has a track-record of doing right by Tesla shareholders. With voting dilution a given, we FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

expect Tesla shareholders may try to minimize economic dilution by locking a merger ratio. With 2025 2026 2025 2026

~85% voting rights at SPCX, a straight merger would keep Elon Musk's ~55% at IPO price (59.5% REV NA +3% +1% -8%

voting rights after SPCX shares +37% vs +3% for Tesla since 12 June vs 34.8/36.8% econ stake, EPS NA NA -23% -40%

both well ahead of Elon Musk's desired 25% Tesla stake).

2025 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

Autos and BESS looking better - Vehicle sales have picked up, from a low base in Europe but