Umicore: Placing on +CW into 1H26 (31 Jul) on likely material beat and upgrades

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Umicore: Placing on +CW into 1H26 (31 Jul) on likely material beat and upgrades

r estimates, we Adj. EPS - 26E (€) 1.72 1.82 5.8%

raise our Dec 2027-end PT to €27 (€26) with a bull-case upside to €33. Remain OW.

Style Exposure

• Material upgrades to consensus are likely, even taking into account a

recent sharp pullback in precious-metal prices: Our new bottom-up model

attempts to capture the impact of the multi-year hedging that UMI has in place

for key precious metals – gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium. The

model (Figure 10Potentialearningsimpactfrommetalpricechanges,includingtheimpactfrommetalhedgingforgold,silver,platinum,paladiumandrhodium.Limitedhedgingasumedforothermetals) indicates a potential metal price impact of +€131m in 2026

– 11m in 2027, +€44m in 2028, +€90m in 2029 and +€61m in 2030. Even after

applying conservative haircuts for limited disclosure and backtest error, and

taking into account the recent pullback in spot precious metal prices, we

estimate 14%/8%/2%/8% upside to 1H26/FY26/FY27/28 Recycling division

EBITDA. Our recent conversations with the company suggest that the upside

Catalyst Watch is our short-term conviction

from favorable volumes in a high and volatile metal price environment in 1H26

indicator for our coverage universe. It is an

is also likely to be higher than reflected in consensus.

optional indicator our research analysts

• Specialty Materials earnings are also likely to beat, aided by a growing can apply to a stock in their coverage into

exposure to niche high-growth applications, which may individually be a specific event in order to articulate short-

small but collectively a material driver of earnings growth over time: Our term positivity or caution based on near-