Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

ey Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 19 Secular Growth: Positive

Jun 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either Self-help: Positive

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE €43.00 BASE CASE €39.00 BEAR CASE €28.00

Successful self-help enables long-term re- Solid business plan execution Weaker execution & tough macro

rating

- 40% long-term cost-cutting retention - Low cost-cutting retention (30%).

Our bull case is based on a SOTP valuation,

valuing the group's various divisions on - WTS deal EBITDA synergies at €90mn (in - €710mn of deal synergies vs. €729mn in

listed peers' trading EV/EBITDA as well as line with target) our base case

recent M&A EV/EBITDA multiples. We apply

- WTS deal tax synergies at €10mn (in line - French corporate tax surcharge for 2026 &a conservative 5x multiple to the activities

with target) some contingencies for potential adverse taxthat we think the market is less likely to re-

developments in 2027rate. - CleanEarth deal EBITDA synergies at

€105mn (in line with target) - Tough macro environment leading to- We implicitly value Water at ~10x 2026

weaker revenue trajectoryEV/EBITDA. - French corporate tax surcharge for 2026 &

some contingencies for potential adverse tax - Group WACC of 6.4%- We implicitly value Waste at ~11x 2026

developments in 2027EV/EBITDA.

- Small macro environment headwind in- We implicitly value Energy at ~7x 2026

2026-27EV/EBITDA.

- Mark-to-market on FX and recyclates