Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Realty Income Corp (O.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

KEI - FFO Growth (Row 98) (%) 3.6 2.8 5.1 3.0

KEI - Dividend Payout Ratio (Row

75.2 74.5 73.9 73.9

105) (%)

KEI - SS NOI Growth (Row 175) (%) 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Higher acquisition volumes at more accretive RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

yields. US transaction volume accelerates quicker than

Economic uncertainty and/or lower rates cause a expected and higher external cap rates FFO per 4.39

rotation into higher quality names translate to greater earnings accretion. share 4.28 4.50

Potential beneficiary of industry consolidation. Key tenants that have closed their stores re- ($) 4.40

open.

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 3.32

DPS

Interest cost headwinds limits AFFO per share 3.23 3.33

($)

0-10% Europe ex UK growth as debt matures. 3.28

10-20% UK Inability to source a significant number of

80-90% North America accretive deals. Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Higher than expected loss of rental income

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

from potential tenant bankruptcies.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 34.2%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

4/5 24 Month 5/5 3 Month

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon HF Sector Net Exposure 1.9%

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Quintile inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure.