Colombia Election Update: A Close Call Validates Base Case

研报英文原文证据摘录

Colombia Election Update: A Close Call Validates Base Case

Idea

June 22, 2026 10:53 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMColombia Economics & Strategy | Latin America Nicolas Eterovic

Economist

Colombia Election Update: A Nicolas.Eterovic@morganstanley.comIoana Zamfir +1 212 761-1245

Strategist

Ioana.Zamfir@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4012

Close Call Validates Base Case Emma C Cerda

Emma.Cerda@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2344

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Julia Lobato Barbosa

Key Takeaways Economist

Julia.Lobato.Barbosa@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6016

De la Espriella secured one of the highest vote shares among recent presidents,

but the narrow margin underscores the need for a mandate for policy change,

rather than a blank check.

The outcome moves Colombia closer to our base case and potentially a

moderate-bull scenario, but it's still early for a full bull case.

The very tight results suggest that pricing in the final 20% of bull case optimism

could be bumpier than we anticipated, with assets likely to retrace at open.

We would look to fade a sell-off, especially for USD/COP closer to 3550 and

2036 TES yields closer to 12.30%, medium-term favoring FX and 1s5s IBR

flatteners.

We expect sovereign credit spreads to widen marginally to price in a moderate

bear scenario. We favor 12y EUR bonds and long-end USD bonds.

Economics: Per the official electoral authority’s published count as of 11pm on June

21, with 99.99% counted, Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia’s second-round

election with 49.66% of the vote, or 12.96 million votes, versus Iván Cepeda’s

48.70%, or 12.71 million votes — a narrow margin of roughly 251k votes and 0.96pp,

on 62.7% turnout. In historical perspective, De la Espriella’s vote total is the highest