The Baldwin Group: Taking Advantage of a Potential Catalyst in a Sector Without Many, Moving from Neutral to Overweight

研报英文原文证据摘录

The Baldwin Group: Taking Advantage of a Potential Catalyst in a Sector Without Many, Moving from Neutral to Overweight

Pablo S. Singzon AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-2295 22 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.com

in a take-private scenario. Assuming a 4-5 year exit multiple on cash earnings of 14x

(consistent with today’s multiples for brokers), ~8% organic growth through 2030

(reflective of our view of BWIN’s run-rate growth), and 200 bps margin expansion from

23% today (reflecting the $40 million of expense savings BWIN has identified as part of

3B30), we think a financial sponsor could pay equity value at $25-30 per share (12.1-

13.6x EV/2026E EBITDA, 12.7-15.3x P/2026E earnings) and generate its required mid-

teens or higher IRRs. We note that the assumptions we use in this analysis are broadly

consistent with our model, but below the official long-term guidance provided by BWIN,

which we do not have great visibility into but which an acquirer may be in a better position

to underwrite (the 3B30 program calls for $3 billion of revenues and 30% EBITDA

margins by 2029, which our model does not assume). Beyond the potential for better than

expected fundamentals and expansion in the exit multiple, the major driver of equity

value in the take-private option is the ability of BWIN to take on more debt as a private

company and the fact that a financial sponsor will only have to buy out Class A shares

(68% of equity), which creates additional positive leverage. BWIN’s debt/2026E

EBITDA is ~5x, and it is not unusual for private brokers to have debt multiples closer to

~7x. A stock price of $25-30 implies total equity value representing 7.6-9.1x of 2026E

EBITDA ($3.5-4.2 billion). Since a financial sponsor will likely rollover most if not all