US Softlines Retail: UBS Evidence Lab inside: European Transaction Monitor: May Shows Minor Improvement

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US Softlines Retail: UBS Evidence Lab inside: European Transaction Monitor: May Shows Minor Improvement

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US Softlines Retail Equities

AmericasUBS Evidence Lab inside: European Transaction

Monitor: May Shows Minor Improvement Retailers, Specialty

Jay Sole

Analyst

jay.sole@ubs.com

Our Softlines EU Consumer Spending Index decreased 20% y/y in May: +1-212-713 3559

We combine credit card, debit card, and account bank transactions data to track Mauricio Serna, CFA

consumer spending for 19 Softlines brands across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Analyst

United Kingdom. Looking at spending trends across all 19 brands and countries mauricio.serna@ubs.com

observed, our Softlines Europe Consumer Spending Index decreased 20% y/y in May on +1-212-713 9028

a currency-neutral basis. The -20% rate was a 170 bps improvement m/m (Fig. 2). Out of Natalie Koltermann

the 19 brands in the index, only 6 experienced positive "Total Spend" growth (Fig. 7). On Associate Analyst

a 2-yr basis the index decreased 30%, decelerating ~285 bps m/m. Notably "Spend per natalie.koltermann@ubs.com

Transaction" was up 5% in May, this was similar m/m (Fig. 5). +1-212-713 4229

Aditya Kulkarni

Urban Outfitters and The North Face had the best "Total Spend" y/y growth in Associate Analyst

May: aditya.kulkarni@ubs.com

For the month of May, the Total Spend y/y ex-fx growth rate by brand was as follows +1-212-713 1098

(listed from strongest to weakest): Urban Outfitters, 19%; The North Face, 16%; On Serge Severenchuk

Running, 12%; Ralph Lauren, 12%; Crocs, 8%; Birkenstock, 1%; Hollister, -1%; Calvin Associate Analyst

Klein, -3%; Michael Kors, -6%; Abercrombie & Fitch, -6%; Tommy Hilfiger, -9%; Levi's, serge.severenchuk@ubs.com