Muang Thai Capital: Manageable macro risk and compelling valuation: upgrade to a Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Muang Thai Capital: Manageable macro risk and compelling valuation: upgrade to a Buy

g and proactive debt restructuring.

12/27E 3.17 3.42 8 3.93

12/28E 3.29 3.66 11 4.14

We expect robust Q226E results

We forecast MTC to post a net profit of Bt1.85bn (+12% YoY, +1% QoQ) in Q226 vs. Peach Patharavanakul

Bt1.82bn (+16% YoY, +2% QoQ) in Q126. MTC has maintained a stable debt collection Analyst

peach.patharavanakul@ubs.comrate QTD relative to Q126, alongside accelerating loan growth driven by seasonal

+662-613 5717

demand. We expect NIM to improve 31bp QoQ and remain steady YoY, supported by a

seasonal recovery in loan yields and continued downward repricing of COF. Despite the Mark Sriskulpinyo

upward trajectory in bond yields, MTC and peers should secure favourable debenture Associate Analyst

mark.sriskulpinyo@ubs.com

funding in Q226E, benefiting from the flight to quality sentiment in the domestic bond

+662-613 5742

market.

Valuation: compelling relative to peers

Our new PT is based on 1.4x 2026E P/BV (1.2x previously), supported by a higher

sustainable ROE of 14.2% (from 13.1%), a COE of 10.9% and L-T growth of 3%.

Following MTC's 25% YTD correction compared to the 15% decline in SETBANK, the

current 2026E 1.2x P/BV and 9.0x PE appears undervalued relative to peers (a 13% and

14% discount to TIDLOR, respectively), while factoring in macroeconomic risks. Our

macro downside scenario of NPL formation rising to a historical high of 3% implies a

Bt27.00 fair value with limited downside from the current price.

Highlights (Btm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 20,669 22,760 24,572 26,925 29,236 30,960 32,849 34,946

Pre-tax profit 6,126 7,328 8,409 9,102 9,063 9,711 8,619 8,460

Net earnings (reported) 4,906 5,867 6,723 7,281 7,251 7,769 6,895 6,768