Honda Motor: Favourable near term, uncertainties medium term

研报英文原文证据摘录

Honda Motor: Favourable near term, uncertainties medium term

x assumptions (Figure 4). For FY3/28, we forecast OP at ¥1.2trn, with the impact of

03/28E 183.9 195.3 6 197.8

new HEV model launches still limited, at around 1% of automobile OP. We expect

03/29E 200.3 221.7 11 236.6

automobile FCF to recover to positive normalised profit levels in FY3/29. We forecast

FY3/29 OP of ¥1.4trn (up 12% from previous forecast). From FY3/29 onward, we Kohei Takahashi

estimate that BEV investments in automobiles will expand again, and that automobile Analyst

OP margins will remain flat at low levels from FY3/29 onward. kohei.takahashi@ubs.com

+81-3-5208 6172

Q1 FY3/27 OP forecast ¥400bn Mao Eguchi

We estimate that motorcycle sales in April-May were ahead of the company plan. In Associate Analyst

mao.eguchi@ubs.com

Vietnam, ICE vehicle restrictions under consideration for introduction have been relaxed

+81-3-5208 6242

significantly (e.g., smaller areas where ICE driving is prohibited and alignment of ICE

vehicle prohibition times with existing low-emission zone restrictions) and concerns over

sales declines due to regulations have also retreated considerably. We forecast that

motorcycle OP in Q1 FY3/27 will exceed ¥180.0bn, in line with the previous year's

quarterly record high (Figures 1 and 5). For automobiles, we assume that BEV

restructuring costs (¥500.0bn annually for FY3/27) will not occur in Q1, and given strong

US sales, we forecast that automobile OP will turn to the black at ¥140.0bn. We forecast

consolidated OP of ¥400bn in Q1 FY3/27.

Valuation: Price target ¥1,400 (previously ¥1,300)

Our valuation is based on a FY3/28E PER of 7X (unchanged). We are raising our price

target to reflect earnings forecast changes. We assume manufacturing business net cash