First Read Nexans SA: Site visit feedback: confident message from management on Transmission contract wins, DC growth & European low voltage recovery

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read Nexans SA: Site visit feedback: confident message from management on Transmission contract wins, DC growth & European low voltage recovery

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 1.2%

Forecast dividend yield 1.8%

Forecast stock return 3.1%

Market return assumption 7.7%

Forecast excess return -4.6%

Company Description

Nexans is a global player in the cables industry, with a strategy to become an electrification

pure play. The three main segments are PWR-Transmission (HV cables), PWR-Grid (focus on

medium voltage for grid operators), PWR-Connect (focus on low voltage with residential and

non-residential applications), with Non-Electrification set to be divested (industrial exposure).

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

NKT A/S:

The risks associated with our Sell rating on NKT include: 1) lower ramp-up cost headwinds

than we forecast in Solutions, enabling higher margin growth, 2) subcontracting revenue

headwinds are not as high as we forecast in 2025, 3) NKT takes on further debt to for more

bolt-on acquisitions, 4) the Karlskrona capex outlay comes in below the budget ~€1bn. Our

12m price target is set by using a SOTP with 12m forward target EV/EBIT multiples across the

divisions, where we leverage peer Group multiples across the different end market exposures.

Prysmian:

Risks associated with our Buy rating include: 1) grid exposure margins reduce from current

elevated levels and go below our 2027 forecast, 2) slower growth in Transmission to 2028 as

Prysmian holds back capex in high voltage to 2027/28, 3) Encore Wire exposure sees more

price competition in the US reducing profitability. Our 12m price target is set by using a SOTP

with 12m forward target EV/EBIT multiples across the divisions, where we leverage peer