Lindt & Sprüngli: Fine-tuning our view on next catalyst

研报英文原文证据摘录

Lindt & Sprüngli: Fine-tuning our view on next catalyst

View on next catalyst and chocolate market data

View on next catalyst (H1 26 results due 21 July): After speaking to industry

experts, a market update of the largest chocolate producer Barry Callebaut and

considering Nielsen market data, we think Lindt has room to reach the lower end of its

2026 organic sales guidance (details) already in H1 26E, which could stabilise/ bottom

out investor sentiment somewhat, we think.

We forecast Lindt's H1 26E group organic sales to be close to 4% y/y (UBSe +3.7%,

cons. +4.5% – but street expectations appear closer to our estimates, we think) split

between -7% volumes (mild improvement vs H2 25 of -8% y/y) and price of +11 y/y.

Europe, against tight comps, should be low-single-digit negative y/y (mainly driven by

the DACH region) and NA and ROW should grow by high single digits y/y. We believe the

trend in consumers trading up remaining intact (eg, Barry will focus more on premium,

good performance of dark chocolate) is crucial. We think an important detail is Lindt's

near-term organic sales are mainly impacted by a certain region (DACH), face tight

comps (Europe volumes H1 25 almost flattish y/y), and are not broader based. We

forecast H1 26E EBIT margins at 10% (in line with guidance).

We expect Lindt to confirm its FY 26E guidance of +4-6% organic sales (UBSe 3.7% –

on sell-in vs sell-out difference – unchanged since mid-March; consensus +4.3%)

implying a volume acceleration to flattish y/y in H2 26E versus H1 of -7% (easier comps

and reinvestment of lower cocoa butter costs a key driver). The H1 26E volume growth

forecast of -7% y/y already should show some stabilisation/ mild improvement versus

the -8.5% y/y in H2 25. Against muted investor sentiment, we think Lindt's H1 26E