Arabian Drilling: The Ugly, The Bad, and the Underappreciated Good (PT increased to SAR115.4)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Arabian Drilling: The Ugly, The Bad, and the Underappreciated Good (PT increased to SAR115.4)

19 June 2026

Abdessamad Raghibi, Ph.D.

+212 5 22 86 79 41

MENA Energy abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com

Guillaume DelabyArabian Drilling

+33 1 42 13 62 29

Rating guillaume.delaby@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Specialist Sales

Gareth Williams

Price Target +44 20 7762 5256

gareth.b.williams@bernsteinsg.com

ARABIAND.AB 115.44 SAR (109.30 OLD)

Arabian Drilling: The Ugly, The Bad, and the Underappreciated

Good (PT increased to SAR115.4)

We update our Arabian Drilling model while increasing our PT to SAR115.44 (v. SAR109.3) on

Close Date 18 Jun 2026

the back of accelerating gas drilling and our conviction that the company is increasingly aware

ARABIAND.AB Close Price (SAR) 93.75

that international diversification merits a premium in the GCC.

Price Target (SAR) 115.44

The Ugly: 2Q Trough Is Unavoidable. Late-March offshore suspensions crystallise the full Upside/(Downside) 23%

revenue hit in 2Q, with management guiding ~12% qoq decline (Bern: -7%), wiping out the 52-Week Range 107.00/72.15

offshore segment's high-margin contribution (~32% gross margin in 1Q) and creating an ASIAX 2,049.73

earnings air pocket with limited visibility on recall timing. FYE Dec

Div Yield NA

The Bad: Offshore Restarts Are a 2027 Story at Best. With the IEA projecting a Market Cap (SAR) (M) 8,344

significant 2027 supply surplus post-Hormuz normalization, and Rystad flagging Safaniya/ EV (SAR) (M) 10,686

Manifa suspensions costing ~15 rig years annually through 2030, Aramco has both the macro Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

justification and strategic incentive to keep offshore rigs cold-stacked longer. Absolute (%) (5.1) 8.1 (7.4) 27.6

ASIAX (%) 25.3 8.2 28.6 48.6

The Good: LSTK Gas Expansion Is Underappreciated.